Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator

Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator Rating: 4,8/5 921 reviews

While many blackjack authors have written extensively about the subject and described it in terms of complex mathematical equations, risk of ruin can be simply described as your chance of doubling your bankroll versus busting out during a blackjack session. At JackpotCity Casino, players can enjoy more than 500 casino games online, including slots with variants of classic 3-reel as well as modern 5-reel video slots, Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator most of them packed with in-game bonus features. There are also progressive jackpot online and mobile casino slots, where one lucky spin can land a jackpot win Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator of. Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator The page will give you all the information you need, including details about alternative payment methods.

risk of ruin blackjack calculatorHere, risk of ruin is defined as the probability ...Learn how much money is needed to make money with card counting and how many betting units are recommended for your blackjack bankroll to keep risk low?Bankroll Blackjack Calculator bankroll blackjack calculator Bankroll Blackjack Calculator bankroll blackjack calculator But just like with any ...Nov 01, 2016 · How to improve your risk to reward and increase your winning rate (by using this one simple “trick”) - Duration: 11:06. Rayner Teo 38,224 viewsRisk Of Ruin Blackjack Calculator risk of ruin blackjack calculator Search for Risk Of Ruin Calculator. Look Up Quick Answers Now!Analysis of risk of ruin and ...What is my risk of ruin?Blackjack is extremely simple and popular card game. Moreover it is the most widely played casino game of all times.Bankroll Blackjack Calculator. bankroll blackjack calculator Aug 13, 2015 · For a $25 table, the minimum bankroll requirement is $25. But you would need at least a …Craps Risk Of Ruin Calculator. craps risk of ruin calculator Risk Of Ruin Blackjack Calculator. risk of ruin blackjack calculator BJ21 is the premier source for information on blackjack, craps, ... 200)E/s ^2), and by using a calculator it can be ...Risk Of Ruin What are the chances ...A special case of the ruin formula given before is the following for when we wish to *double* the bankroll: 1 R = ----- 1 + S^n where R is the risk of ruin S is the ratio of winning to losing n is the units of coin toss bankroll We can solve this in terms of n, to answer the above question, and we get: log((1/R) - 1) n = ----- log(S) Expanding ...What is my risk of ruin? Risk of Ruin refers to the chance that you will lose your entire bankroll. The charts on this page display three views of risk using formulae from Don Schlesingers Blackjack Attack.For all charts, we are playing six decks, S17, DAS, 5/6 penetration, Hi …Analysis of risk of ruin and bankroll management for video poker and other high variance games. Risk of Ruin for Video Poker and Other High-Variance Games : COMPUTER POWER TO THE PEOPLE!! ... The formulas for predicting fluctuation and the risk of ruin in blackjack can be extended to any game where there is only one payout for winning bets.Aug 02, 2013 · I just came across an easy to use Risk of Ruin Calculator. Lets say there are 2 craps players who keep playing until they double a 100 unit bankroll or bust out trying. Player A bets 1 unit on the pass line with no odds every time (1.41% house edge) - his risk of ruin is a whopping ~94%.risk of ruin blackjack calculator Portage Hotel Lewiston Ny
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How it Works… All the best real money online casinos in the world are available to USA players who love to gamble. I am one of them having won a lot of cold, hard cash over the years on the same games I used play in Las Vegas. I had to travel for days across the desert, now I exclusively review these amazing real money online casino sites and I have never looked back! I put all my gambling knowledge into this list, which is reviewed by both our experts and players like you.

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All of the legal⇓ real money casino sites here are 100% safe and accept deposits / withdraw from most major credit cards, bitcoin, and vouchers like EZ pay. The gambling games offered include slot machines, roulette, blackjack, keno, faro, scratch cards, craps, baccarat, and video poker. They may be accessed from instant play, downloaded and played on a computer.

We thoroughly vet them to make sure they have fast payouts, a history of reliability, and quality customer support, before listing them here. This means you will have a great gaming experience the first time and for years to come. Of course new players have a lot of questions about how to find the right place to gamble safely. We can help! Get started by clicking on a site and completing the secure registration process, or jump to the FAQ⇓.

Wondering if you can bet for free also?Because each of the real money online casinos listed above have been trusted to hold a legal online gambling license, they also offer bonus incentives. The gambling certification, which are country of origin dependent, are checked regularly for changes, tested for fair gaming practices, and are third-party certified. Establishing this as a baseline, combined with which ones have the best promotions currently, allows for the what we think is the most accurate way to compare them. While other online casino review sites are biased, we take no commission from our recommendations because we believe honesty is the best policy. Now you have the power to pick from a true top list! Still need help? Just click here⇓.

How We Pick the Best from the Rest

It goes without saying that after 26 years in the gaming industry, we have strong opinions about who is on the up and up. Even with that said, our info is based solely in facts and history we have witnessed personally. If a casino goes rogue it is removed immediately. This page only features the real money gambling sites our team found to be the very best on many levels of the term “best”. This is done so you have more time to relax and play without the burden of worrying about your final decision. Sounds great right! But how is it actually worked out?

In the search for the ultimate gaming experience, our team compares each of the casinos using bonuses first to see how it feels overall. After this, we contact them directly and set up a way to review the games in an unbiased way as if we are regular paying customers. Then we gamble and record the data. This gives two perspectives for our objective review process so in the end we will only list websites that fit a very strict criteria of fairness, quality, and trust.

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Unfortunately, when any real money online casino in the USA is sold to a new company this entire process must be repeated. Finding out when a website is sold and who bought it is the real problem. That is where our friends in the industry come into play. Our informants are priceless in finding out what they don’t want us to know, like who owns who! This way we can suggest reputable companies we know are on the up and up, not rebranded unsavory casinos which could go rogue and potentially not payout ever.

The Rules of Being Reviewed: Each Real Money Casino Has to Meet These Standards To Be Listed!

  • Features slots that have a high payback. Slots bets range from $0.25 to $150 per spin!
  • accepts USA residents
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  • payouts in real USD (American Currency) or Bitcoin with check withdrawals available
  • have talked to us directly and passed our secret customer support test
  • has a large variety of games. This is an absolute must. We will never list a site that features only one game as it is almost NEVER regulated and could close down at anytime.

More About Bonuses & Promotions!

Most people who intend on playing only slots often opt to use sign-up offers because it literally guarantees more spins when a player makes their first deposit. Plus it truly feels good to win before the spin! The key feature is that it’s extra free chips and credits added to the starting balance for free. While only usable on slot machines, It’s nice to know you will be playing longer even if your luck is down, right?

Some sites allow gambling with bonus codes at table games as well. This is called a “no rules bonus”, but all promotions will at least allow the player to claim free spins on the slots. If an “all games” rule is provided then they can be used on specialty table games like baccarat, craps, roulette, or blackjack. They will specifically say that it will work on table games, otherwise do no expect bonuses to transfer from slots to tables.

Rewards are given as prizes, comps, and bonus play. As stated above, the bonuses still allow players to gain comps making them even more valuable to regular returning customers. It is surprising how quickly comp points can add up! Sometimes they exceed the players first deposits in the matter of weeks. Comps are one of the few things in an online casino that is truly a win-win for everyone.

Why can’t everyone join?

Not all states are allowed to sign up. In America, what is considered virtual gambling is treated differently from state to state, and also from game to game. For instance, professional sports betting is illegal, yet playing slot machines or a card game like blackjack is not. Another popular real money game in the USA that is regulated differently is real money Bingo because it is skill based and has been grandfathered in before anti-gaming laws were in place. These Bingo sites frequently have casino-like games and scratch cards as well. If your state is not allowed the site will prevent you from registering automatically.

You may say the games seem the same as everywhere else, but their not…

There are big advantages to gambling online as opposed to live games at land-based casinos. Craps, Blackjack, and Roulette can be played at a much faster pace online allowing for more bets in a shorter time. That is an important concept to understand. For instance, if you are hitting consistently on red, you could take advantage of your lucky streak with extra fast bets on even numbers and on red as well. Then, just slow down your betting when your luck turns. For this reason and because they tend to have good odds, many die-hard table game players play online exclusively.

Seasoned players know that video poker has very good odds, so playing several hands at once is preferable. The more hands played the more that can be won, and nothing compares to the rate one can play cards online. Some professional gamblers play multi-hand video poker as their sole source of income. Now they don’t have to commute to work!

Slot machines at these websites payback more per bet than offline slot machines do. This is a really big deal because slots generally do not payback as much as other games, so slot players are always looking for the highest payback they can find. As much as double the amount of money is returned to the gambler compared to tight Vegas slots on the strip. The fact that slot machines spin faster online offsets this gain slightly, but it also increase total playing time.

All the latest gambling websites to go public are listed here!

Some people think brand new is always better. While this is not always true, new is at least fresh and different. Well, searching new online casinos for 2018 starts, and ends right here. Gamblers that need a reliable and unbiased reference point before moving forward into unknown territory need not look further. Knowing more about a new site before depositing money will help increase your fun factor and your bank account in the end. Some people over spend or over bet on new sites. Don’t fall prey to emotional gambling! If you feel this way it is good advice to calm your excitement and focus on the task at hand.

Our founder says, “There is so much info that can help make good players better, and already great ones the absolute best it is hard to generalize, but we think we have it down to a perfect science. Offer only the best!”

So that is exactly what we do! Many of us agree that entertainment is just better when it’s gambling online from the serene setting of your very own home, so that is where we put all our focus. After all, it has a crazy history in the USA that continues today. See the infographic. Relaxing on the couch with your phone or sitting at your desk on the computer is better for a lot of people who do not want to go out.

Clean, convenient, and safe from all mass shootings, USA online casino gambling is such a great alternative that one day it may exceed land based gambling. This is not a far fetched idea. It is already a 67 billion dollar industry. With so many people betting, and with Mobile Casino Party expert advice in mind, you are sure to find the right play to play.

Almost All Online Casinos for Real Money Have Gone Mobile Friendly!

A section of mobile phone only sites have now been added and are able to be accessed on a variety of smartphones and tablets including Android, iPad, Blackberry, and iPhones. Some of the newer sites have big brands who make games like those found in Las Vegas and other gaming destinations, but most are independent of the major gaming hubs. Realtime gaming is a good example. These guys make new games once a month, sometimes twice, which is a lot more than land-based casinos can pump out.

Large manufactures including IGT, Williams, and Aristocrat have apps on state run sites for New Jersey, Delaware, Washington, and Nevada residents. Frankly the software is less than what most hardcore gamblers would expect. Because of this the majority of American residents still play at offshore websites. This brings fear of tax evasion and the possibility of laundering money from American officials, yet not one arrest has ever been made on a state level. If regulation becomes federal law than it is very likely these large companies will step in and take over all real money casino game manufacturing.

Where is the App Store and Google Play?

Please do not be mislead elsewhere! There are no real money gambling apps for USA players in the App Store or Goggle Play. Even the state-run websites in NJ are not allowed to offer their games as a certified app. Until our first mobile playstore apps arrive, players use their mobile device’s web browser or Chrome app. Here’s a cool fact, apps have recently become the norm elsewhere, as the Playstore in the UK offers lots of app choices. One day it may be the same in the US but as of now there is really no sign of change coming soon.

Still Have Questions? Let’s Take this Step By Step…
  • First, search the list above and find the one you would like to try first. Many people start by reading the online casino reviews rated by our experts and your votes.
  • Then you click on the button where you want make an account.
  • Confirm your Email address, Sign in and navigate to the Cashier
  • Redeem the coupon code and/or deposit (optional).
  • Gamble! To re-fund your account make a deposit using a credit card or voucher code. See the cashier tab for types of cards accepted and restrictions.

Online Casino FAQ

Is there a minimum age required to gamble with real money online?

Yes, you have to be at least 21 years of age to gamble in the US. This is not enforced as strongly as some would like, but the legal age of gambling corresponds with the licensing country. Some casino sites accept players 18 years of age and older, but these are probably a scam as they may not actually pay anyone under 21. Always look for proper certifications and licenses on the websites homepage.

Do they have “Player’s Clubs”?

No. Instead, many offer signup bonuses and other promotions. They will increase these rewards to regularly returning customers and offer VIP bonuses to highrollers. Special relationships can be achieved with highroller status. Speak to the casino host for more info.

What Are Comp Points?

All real money casinos that are online offer some monetary incentive based on the amount a player bets, with the most common being the comp point. They can be exchanged for cash, and unlike bonuses, they have actual value that can be used on the tables as well as the slots. Comp points add up fast but may not rollover to the next month after 1 year of no use.

Can I play the games for free?

Usually yes. Almost every one has both free and real money game modes, which is usually selected while logging-in effectively separating them from each other. The free mode makes for a great way to practice or to see how much you would have won or lost if you were really betting. The other mode labeled free is self explanatory. No charges are made while you learn how it works.

May I ask for help if I don’t know how to play a game?

Yes, the table dealers or a Live Chat Operator can explain the rules of any game, which can vary from site to site. Email support if your downloaded client fails.

Which US States are accepted?

Generally players from every state except Washington, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York, and Delaware are allowed to play. If your state is not accepted the website should not allow you to signup, it’s that simple. Then find a new real money online casino, or play when traveling to different states or while taking a vacation!

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The bankroll required to have a one percent risk of ruin is about 20 percent higher than the bankroll for a five percent risk of ruin. The bankroll as a percentage of the total dollars played decreases as the number of plays increases. SINGLE VERSUS MULTIPLE PLAY WITH SAME BET AMOUNT. Nov 18, 2013 Risk of Ruin Simulator and Calculator I built a function that works in a free program (called R - you can download it at www.r-project.org ) for simulating your risk of ruin. I have pasted the function below, but first let me explain a few things.

With regard to poker, the risk of ruin is the probability of losing a given bankroll because of these short term swings. It is small when the bankroll is large since a long streak of bad luck is required to drain a large bankroll completely, and the probability of such a streak occurring drops off rapidly as its length increases.

For those who don't know, the risk of ruin is the probability of losing an entire bankroll. The following tables show the number of betting units required according to the desired risk of ruin, the game, and cash back. A 'betting unit' is five coins, for example a betting unit would be $1.25 for a 25 cent machine player. The table above offers a 25% risk of ruin, so it is NOT for the professional player unless you harbor burger-flipping aspirations. However, the 22 buy-in bank-roll requirements can have you on a rush to the high stakes at a rate a pro could only dream of!

Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one's investment capital[1] or extinguishing one's bankroll below the minimum for further play. For instance, if someone bets all their money on a simple coin toss, the risk of ruin is 50%. In a multiple-bet scenario, risk of ruin accumulates with the number of bets: each repeated play increases the risk, and persistent play ultimately yields the stochastic certainty of gambler's ruin.

  • 1Finance

Risk Of Ruin Calculator Blackjack

Finance[edit]

Risk of ruin for investors[edit]

An investor with no liabilities and all their assets in gold has zero risk of ruin, but they forgo earning opportunities and unless there is a sustained and substantial rise in the value of gold, their relative wealth may decline.
Blackjack risk of ruin calculator

Two leading strategies for minimising the risk of ruin are diversification and hedging. An investor who pursues diversification will try to own a broad range of assets – they might own a mix of shares, bonds, real estate and liquid assets like cash and gold. The portfolios of bonds and shares might themselves be split over different markets – for example a highly diverse investor might like to own shares on the LSE, the NYSE and various other bourses. So even if there is a major crash affecting the shares on any one exchange, only a part of the investors holdings should suffer losses. Protecting from risk of ruin by diversification became more challenging after the financial crisis of 2007–2010 – at various periods during the crises, until it was stabilised in mid-2009, there were periods when asset classes correlated in all global regions. For example, there were times when stocks and bonds [2] fell at once – normally when stocks fall in value, bonds will rise, and vice versa. Other strategies for minimising risk of ruin include carefully controlling the use of leverage and exposure to assets that have unlimited loss when things go wrong (e.g., Some financial products that involve short selling can deliver high returns, but if the market goes against the trade, the investor can lose significantly more than the price they paid to buy the product.)

The probability of ruin is approximately

P(ruin)=(21+μr1)sr{displaystyle P(mathrm {ruin} )=left({frac {2}{1+{frac {mu }{r}}}}-1right)^{frac {s}{r}}},

where

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r=μ2+σ2{displaystyle r={sqrt {mu ^{2}+sigma ^{2}}}}

for a random walk with a starting value of s, and at every iterative step, is moved by a normal distribution having mean μ and standard deviation σ and failure occurs if it reaches 0 or a negative value. For example, with a starting value of 10, at each iteration, a Gaussian random variable having mean 0.1 and standard deviation 1 is added to the value from the previous iteration. In this formula, s is 10, σ is 1, μ is 0.1, and so r is the square root of 1.01, or about 1.005. The mean of the distribution added to the previous value every time is positive, but not nearly as large as the standard deviation, so there is a risk of it falling to negative values before taking off indefinitely toward positive infinity. This formula predicts a probability of failure using these parameters of about 0.1371, or a 13.71% risk of ruin. This approximation becomes more accurate when the number of steps typically expected for ruin to occur, if it occurs, becomes larger; it is not very accurate if the very first step could make or break it. This is because it is an exact solution if the random variable added at each step is not a Gaussian random variable but rather a binomial random variable with parameter n=2. However, repeatedly adding a random variable that is not distributed by a Gaussian distribution into a running sum in this way asymptotically becomes indistinguishable from adding Gaussian distributed random variables, by the law of large numbers.

Risk Of Ruin Calculator Poker

Financial trading[edit]

The term 'risk of ruin' is sometimes used in a narrow technical sense by financial traders to refer to the risk of losses reducing a trading account below minimum requirements to make further trades. Random walk assumptions permit precise calculation of the risk of ruin for a given number of trades. For example, assume one has $1000 available in an account that one can afford to draw down before the broker will start issuing margin calls. Also, assume each trade can either win or lose, with a 50% chance of a loss, capped at $200. Then for four trades or less, the risk of ruin is zero. For five trades, the risk of ruin is about 3% since all five trades would have to fail for the account to be ruined. For additional trades, the accumulated risk of ruin slowly increases. Calculations of risk become much more complex under a realistic variety of conditions. To see a set of formulae to cover simple related scenarios, see Gambler's ruin. Opinions among traders about the importance of the 'risk of ruin' calculations are mixed; some[who?] advise that for practical purposes it is a close to worthless statistic, while others[who?] say it is of the utmost importance for an active trader to be aware of it.[3][4]

See also[edit]

Blackjack Risk Of Ruin Calculator

Poker Bankroll Risk Of Ruin Calculator Formula

Poker Risk Of Ruin Calculator

  • Absorbing Markov chain (used in mathematical finance to calculate risk of ruin)
  • Fat-tailed distribution (exhibits the difficulty and unreliability of calculating risk of ruin)
  • St. Petersburg paradox (an imaginary game with no risk of ruin and positive expected returns, yet paradoxically perceived to be of low investment value)

Notes and references[edit]

  1. ^'Risk of Ruin (Forex Glossary)'. Financial Trading Journal. Retrieved April 26, 2012.
  2. ^Though US treasuries were generally an exception, except on the very worst days their value generally rose, as part of the 'Flight to safety'.
  3. ^Trading Risk: Enhanced Profitability through Risk Control Kenneth L Grant (2009)
  4. ^The trading game Ryan Jones (1999)

Further reading[edit]

Video Poker Risk Of Ruin Calculator

  • Dickson, David C. M. (2005). Insurance Risk And Ruin. Cambridge University Press. Retrieved April 26, 2012.ISBN0521846404
  • Powers, Mark J. (2001). Starting Out in Futures Trading. McGraw-Hill. pp. 52–55. Retrieved April 26, 2012.ISBN0071363904
  • Baird, Allen Jan (2001). Electronic Trading Masters: Secrets from the Pros!. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. pp. 30–32. Retrieved April 26, 2012.ISBN0471401935
Retrieved from 'https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Risk_of_ruin&oldid=913778360'

By John Grochowski
My friend Mark isn’t a casino regular, but he likes to play a little video poker now and then. His goal is just to have a good time and stay in action for a couple of hours.
“Do you have a guide to how much cash I need to last a couple of hours?” he asked.
I showed him the bankroll calculator on Video Poker for Winners software, and assumed expert play for 1,000 hands --- about two hours play for an average player.
First up was Jacks or Better on three pay tables --- the full-pay 9-6 game, paying 9-for-1 on full houses and 6-for-1 on flushes, which returns 99.54 percent with expert play; the 8-5 game (97.30 percent); and the 7-5 game (96.15 percent) that’s becoming all too common on quarter games.
Jacks or Better is the least volatile of common video poker games, a game that’s designed to keep you in your seat. There are no big four-of-a-kind bonuses that are going to make your day. All quads pay 125 coins for a five-coin wager. But the 2-for-1 payoff on two pairs packs a different kind of wallop, one that will keep you going for extra chances at the bigger pays.
The average loss for two hours of betting $1.25 a hand on a quarter machine is $5.75 with a 9-6 pay table, $34.75 at 8-5 and $48.12 at 7-5 --- which ought to tell you why I’m always harping on finding the best pay tables. In the days when each video poker machine had just one game --- no touching the screen to try a different game --- I once found a long row of 18 machines that alternated between 9-6 and 8-5 pay tables. There were as many players at the low-payers as at the 9-6ers. Ugh.
The required bankroll is much higher than the average loss if you want to give yourself enough for a 5 percent risk of ruin --- a 95 percent chance of surviving two hours without losing it all. That takes $165 on 9-6 Jacks, $185 at 8-5 and $195 at 7-5.
Your chances of having a winning session after two hours are 34.54 percent at 9-6, 22.35 percent at 8-5 and 17.19 percent at 7-5. Settling for a 7-5 pay table instead of 9-6 cuts your chances of winning in half.
Then I checked probably the most popular video poker game: Double Double Bonus Poker. With a 9-6 pay table, it’s a 98.98 percent return, $12.75 average loss in two hours on a quarter machine, with a $300 bankroll for a 5 percent risk of ruin and a 35.46 percent chance of a winning session. On the 8-5 version that’s become all too common, the payback percentage falls to 96.79 percent, average two-hour loss increases to $40.12, the bankroll requirement rises to $320, and the chance of a winning session drops to 30.75 percent.
Double Double Bonus Poker is the more volatile game, with more of its payback concentrated into relatively rare four-of-a-kind hands. Most quads pay 250 for a five-coin wager, and the reward rises to 400 on four 2s, 3s or 4s; 800 if those low quads are accompanied by an Ace, 2, 3 or 4 kicker; 800 on four Aces; and 2,000 on four Aces with a 2, 3 or 4 kicker. The two-pairs return is reduced to 1-for-1 ---- you just get your money back.
That’s why Double Double Bonus bankroll requirements are higher than in Jacks or Better. But in any game, cuts in the pay table slash your chances of winning. Be wary.
LONGER SESSIONS: Two-hour sessions are extremely volatile. Just about anything can happen in any session as short as a couple of hours. But I’ve had many a two-hour session back when that was the length of a riverboat casino cruise, and still often go to a local casino to play for a couple of hours and have lunch or dinner.
But what if you’re going to play longer? What if you’re going on an overnight stay and figure to get in, say, 10 hours of play? Do you have to multiply two-hour bankroll requirements by five?
No, you don’t. Longer sessions smooth things out a bit. For 10 hours of quarter play on 9-6 Jacks or Better, the bankroll for a 5 percent risk of ruin doesn’t quintuple from $165 to $825. Instead, it’s less than tripled, at $450, while the bankroll requirement for 8-5 Jacks rises to $570.
On the more volatile Double Double Bonus Poker, that $300 bankroll for a 5 percent risk or ruin for two hours rises to $885. That’s a big chunk of cash, but at least it’s not the $1,500 you get when multiplying the $300 by five. On the 8-5 version, the bankroll needed for 10 hours is $1,010, and that’s one reason I just won’t play 8-5 Double Double Bonus Poker.

Risk Of Ruin Calculator Video Poker

John Grochowski writes about casino games and the gambling industry in his weekly 'Gaming' column, which is syndicated in newspapers and Web sites across the United States. John is also the author of six books on casinos and casino games.

Jeffrey Poker Articles, Poker Bankroll Management, Poker Mathematics, Poker Tools

Submitted by Scott McIntosh, this article belongs to the Poker Bankroll Management series

In gambling games such as poker, blackjack or video poker where the player is trying to make money not only is it important to be playing with a positive expectation but also much care must be taken not to lose all of one’s money. As the saying goes – “It takes money to make money”. This requires winning players to maintain a certain amount of money in reserve to handle losing streaks and is commonly known as the player’s “bankroll”. This article will explore how to estimate the amount of money that is required to be kept as a poker bankroll in order to play so as reduce the probability of going broke to an acceptable level.

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Risk of Ruin Formula (warning serious math content ahead)

The risk of ruin formula is given below. The formula is based on a random walk with upwards drift and has some assumptions that although not exactly correct are good enough that it still gives a good approximation of a poker player’s risk of ruin. These assumptions include: a) normal distribution of results b) constant win rate and standard deviation. If the actual parameters vary too far from these assumptions care must be taken as the formula is likely to underestimate the actual risk of ruin.

Risk of Ruin = e ^ (-2WB / (S ^ 2))

e = Constant (2.718281828)
W = Win Rate, measured in $ pr. hour
S = Variance (has a unit that doesn’t really make any logical sense)
B = Bankroll, measured in $
^ = Power symbol (e.g. 3^2 = 9; 3^4 = 81)
/ = Division Symbol (e.g. 24/6 = 4; 56/7 = 8 )

Reference : D. Schlesinger, Blackjack Attack, RGE publ., Oakland 1997 (2nd ed. 2000)

Note: A player’s win rate and standard deviation is usually obtained from a Poker Database program such as “Poker Tracker”.

Example

Given a winning poker player with win rate of $30/hour, standard deviation of $600 and bankroll of $15000:

Risk of ruin = e ^ (-2*30*15000/(600^2))
Risk of ruin = 8.208500%

Although this is a precise answer given to 6 decimal places it is only an approximation and probably would be rounded up to give a 10% risk of ruin in practice.

What Risk of Ruin should you accept?

One can never eliminate the risk of going broke, that is reducing the risk of ruin to 0%. Whilst 5% might be acceptable to a part time player, a professional whose only source of income is from poker should use something like a conservative 1% risk of ruin. Also given the error likely in measuring the win rate and standard deviation and also changing table conditions one should maintain a higher bankroll than calculated.

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This article was written by Scott McIntosh.

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If you do not have enough money in your bankroll to absorb these downswings, it is likely that you will lose it all.

Therefore every time we sit down at the poker table, whether it be live or online, we want to give ourselves the best opportunity to win a maximum amount of profit whilst keeping the risk of going broke minimal. This is where the rules of bankroll management come into play.

Whatever you do, never underestimate the power of being properly bankrolled. It requires that your bankroll be capable of surviving some pretty nasty swings.

I agree completely…..nice comment!

Mark’s last blog post..Nice try but I’m not that stupid

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